Focus
Introduction: On February 24th, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of eastern Ukraine, whose action called into question the status quo of European regional security.
Objectives: This investigation aims to analyse, using the theoretical lens of neoclassical realism, the position taken by Portugal in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, considering the Portuguese position in the European Union and NATO in the face of the challenges posed by the actions of Russian Federation.
Methodology: We will use different sources and bibliographies related to Portuguese foreign policy, related to this historical period, which will be used throughout this case study. Furthermore, to apply the methodological framework in question, we will use the main premises developed by theorists of neoclassical realism in International Relations, which will be related to the primacy of the national interest and the survival of the State in an anarchic international system.
Discussion: Neoclassical realist theory is a theoretical perspective of the realist school of International Relations, which consists of a theory that can be used to understand foreign policy decisions, since it incorporates both systemic and unitary variables. Neoclassical realists approach the premises of structural realism at the systemic level, in which security considerations are taken as one of the systemic pressures that shape the behaviour of states. At the unit level, they indicate that, during the Portuguese foreign policy decision-making process, pressure from the international system is filtered by domestic variables.
Conclusion: The main conclusions obtained in this case study show that the Portuguese decision to support Ukraine was influenced by internal dynamics and systemic pressure, considering the Portuguese position at that historical moment.
Raquel Jorge Trujillo
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 21:54:10
Considering neoclassical realism’s emphasis on both systemic and domestic factors, how does Portugal’s response reflect the broader dynamics of smaller EU and NATO member states in balancing national interests with collective security obligations? To what extent does this case demonstrate the limits of neoclassical realism in explaining foreign policy decisions of smaller states within larger security structures?. Thanks for your kindly response.
João Tavares
Comentó el 18/10/2024 a las 16:10:42
Thank you for your interesting question.
Small states inserted in international organizations such as the EU and NATO tend to balance their national interests with their collective security obligations, as they depend on the operational viability of these organizations to ensure their survival inside the anarchic international system.
In the case of Portugal it is no different. Faced with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Portugal woke up to the need to re-invest in its Armed Forces and to the imperative of fulfilling its duties towards the two international organizations of which it is a member state, after several years of military disinvestment. As both entities are multilateral organizations, Portugal is able to have the concerns heard by the other Member States, as is the case with the inclusion of the southern flank in NATO's agenda, to be discussed at the next summit, for example.
The elements of Innenpolitik employed in this case study can be considered a limitation to the application of the theoretical lens of neoclassical realism in generating explanations of the foreign policy decisions made by smaller states within larger security structures, since the application of the variables Intervenors must be in accordance with each case study, taking into account that small powers have a different perception of risks and threats in the international system, just as their respective domestic situation is not identical.
Rose indicates that, instead of assuming that States seek security, as Waltz claims, neoclassical realists assume that States respond to the uncertainties of international anarchy by seeking to control and shape their external environment. In other words, as the relative power of a State increases, it will seek more influence abroad, and as it declines, its actions and ambitions will decrease accordingly.
Methodologically, Neoclassical Realism emphasizes theoretically informed narratives that trace how relative material strength is translated into the behavior of current policymakers. Its main theorists have shown that this approach can illuminate the behavior of countries in many regions of the world during various historical periods.
Prof. Dr. Francisco Salvador Barroso Cortés
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 18:54:00
According to Gideon Rose, the premise from which Neoclassical Realist theory begins is that “the scope and ambition of a country’s foreign policy is driven first and foremost by its place in the international system and specifically by its relative material power capabilities.” Taking that into consideration, how do Portugal's relative material power capabilities affect its foreign policy priorities? which factors do you believe have the most significant impact on Portuguese foreign policy in the current international context?
João Tavares
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 22:35:34
Thank you for your interesting question.
Neoclassical realism holds that a state's actions in the international system can be explained by intervening systemic variables, such as the distribution of power capabilities among states; cognitive variables such as perception and misperception of systemic pressures, intentions of other states, or threats; and internal variables such as state institutions, elites and social actors that affect the power and freedom of action of foreign policy makers.
The government of Lisbon views the international system from its geographic location, which conditions the definition of foreign policy priorities, taking into account its relative material power capabilities.
Portugal's relative material power capabilities not only limit, but also oblige the government of Lisbon to be careful in defining its external action priorities depending on its position inside of the anarchic international system, in order to avoid endangering its survival in the international system, and always in tune with the dominant superpower of the Euro-Atlantic space, the US, as it is the main military guarantor of the European continent.
At this moment, the systemic pressure emanating from the international system is taking on the greatest influence on Brazilian foreign policy in the current international context, with its reading being filtered by domestic variables.
Nádia Teresa Dos Santos Loureiro
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 13:28:06
In the meantime, other questions arose when I reviewed your presentation: despite internal influences, in which a large part of the Portuguese population supported Ukraine, there was initially some resistance from the Portuguese government, which, as a founding member of NATO and a member of the EU, had no choice but to align itself with its partners in these organisations. Is this the new essence of realism? Is the national interest not so much in guaranteeing sovereignty, but in a more macro interest, of collective interest and a sense of belonging to an international bloc that allows it to have powerful allies?
João Tavares
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 15:58:44
The initial resistance on the part of the Portuguese foreign policy executive was justified by the need for the government of Lisbon to wait for the emergence of a common reaction, both from NATO and the EU, in order to be able to subscribe to it, without running the risk of antagonizing the existing great directing powers, whether inside of NATO, as well as in the EU, by assuming an autonomous position out of line with the remaining Member States, since the great powers that dominate the agenda of the international organizations in question and at the same time, that same great powers are the guarantor of Portuguese survival in anarchic international system. In this case, the Portuguese national interest requires that the government of Lisbon aligns itself, cautiously, with its allies in both organizations, in the face of the common threat represented by the Russian Federation.
Nádia Teresa Dos Santos Loureiro
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 13:22:16
Dear Dr. João,
I very much enjoyed your presentation, which not only shows how realism continues to be one of the dominant theories of international relations, with the appropriate adaptations. I'd like to ask you the following question: Can we considering domestic factors in your analysis be considered an ad hoc approach or is it an approach tailored to the case study?
What is the independent variable in your analysis? Thank you in advance!
João Tavares
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 17:13:44
Dear Dr. Nadia.
Thank you for your interesting question.
The consideration of domestic factors, in the wake of neoclassical realism, at first glance, may seem like an ad hoc approach, but in reality, we have a selection of domestic variables specific to the case study, that is, it is an approach adapted to a concrete case study of a State, which is a small power with its own characteristics.
To understand a country's foreign policy, it is often necessary to analyze its internal structures. This shift in the level of analysis introduced by neoclassical realists is fundamental to raising the discussion on Portuguese foreign policy to a new level, and therefore to being able to predict how the behavior of the Portuguese State will evolve.
The independent variable in this case study is the distribution of power existing in the international system.
José Miguel Puertas Salas
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 13:15:19
By examining Portugal's role within the European Union and NATO, your study highlights the significance of alliances and international institutions in shaping a nation's foreign policy. This raises intriguing questions about how smaller states balance their national interests with their commitments to larger collective security arrangements amid global conflicts. In what ways did Portugal's positions within the European Union and NATO influence its foreign policy decisions after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, and how does neoclassical realism explain the interplay between these institutional commitments and the pursuit of national interest?
João Tavares
Comentó el 17/10/2024 a las 21:30:43
Thank you for your interesting question.
The position taken by the European Commission is to support Ukraine, at a political, economic and humanitarian level, with the aim of repelling Russian aggression and ensuring peace on the European continent. From NATO, the Russian invasion of Ukraine represents a reminder of the risks of military disinvestment by European states, and the need for European states to fulfill their obligations to the alliance and rearm again to react to the change in the imposed security environment. by Russian action.
Portugal, being a small power, with little room for maneuver, seeks to promote or participate in multilateral decisions in the international organizations of which it is a part, with a view to expanding its little influence on the commitments to be assumed within the decision-making process of international organizations.
Neoclassical realism explains the interaction between these commitments through the idea that states seek to maximize their security in an anarchic international system. Portugal, by aligning itself with the EU and NATO, is guaranteeing its security and influence on the international scene, while contributing to regional and global stability, in line with the great powers that direct the international organizations, of which it is a part, without devaluing US leadership within the Western world.
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